Investment Memorandum · April 2026
Caribbean Tanker
Partners
Short-Sea Product Tanker Investment Opportunity
Investment Highlights
4-Year Verified Track Record
$17.7M cumulative net profit
EIA-verified performance across 2022–2025, spanning war-peak and normalization cycles.
$40.6M Forward Projection
Probability-weighted (H2 2026–2030)
Three-scenario model based on Iran conflict resolution and Venezuela recovery timelines.
Inelastic Island Demand
100% import dependent
Caribbean island markets have zero domestic diesel production. Demand is non-discretionary — power, transport, and commerce depend on tanker-delivered fuel.
All-Time High Spread
$4.416/gal USGC ULSD — April 2026
All-time waterborne high, per YCharts/EIA. 98% price surge from 2025 average, driven by Iran conflict.
2.1 Voyages/Month
Established 2025 operating cadence
Proven voyage frequency optimized over four years of continuous operations.
Venezuela Optionality
Buy-side sourcing opportunity 2029–2030
As Venezuela refinery output recovers, operator positioned to source ULSD at $15–25/MT below USGC prices with shorter voyage times.
Four Years of Verified Performance
EIA-verified USGC ULSD spot prices · 2022–2025 operating history
| Year | USGC Spot | Spread/MT | Gross Rev/Voyage | Net Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $3.501/gal | $194/MT | $639K | $3.36M |
| 2023 | $2.734/gal | $137/MT | $453K | $5.22M |
| 2024 | $2.365/gal | $115/MT | $380K | $4.56M |
| 2025 | $2.226/gal | $107/MT | $352K | $4.59M |
| 4-Year Cumulative Net Profit | $17.7M | |||
Source: EIA USGC ULSD spot price data · Operator records
Annual Net Profit
2022: partial year (8 months) — Ukraine war peak pricing
Forward Projections: H2 2026–2030
Three scenarios based on Iran conflict resolution timeline and Venezuela recovery
H2 2026 = July–December 2026 only (6-month period)
Bear Case
Iran ceasefire, crude glut
Base Case
Partial resolution, Venezuela emerging
Bull Case
Iran persists, Venezuela opportunity
| Period | Net Profit | USGC $/gal | Spread/MT |
|---|
The Venezuela Opportunity (2029–2030)
A second revenue engine within the investment horizon
Current Situation
- Venezuela refineries at 31% capacity (Reuters, April 2026)
- Net diesel import dependency: ~30,000 bpd
- Self-sufficiency threshold: 44% utilization
- Current trend: declining (35% → 31% in one month)
- H2 2026–2027: Firmly a diesel importer — zero threat to spread
The Opportunity
- 2029–2030 base case: Venezuela approaching self-sufficiency
- Bull case: Small export surplus begins (30–50k bpd)
- Operator positioned to source Venezuelan ULSD at $15–25/MT below USGC
- Freight savings: 1–3 day voyage vs 4–7 days from USGC
- Net buy-side improvement: $25–40/MT
- Same customers, same routes — only buy-side origin changes
The business model is supply-source agnostic. Whether buying from USGC or Venezuela, the spread economics work.
Understanding the Spread
Two-sided trade: buy at USGC, sell to Caribbean islands
Buy-Side Premium
$27/MT structural premium
Small lot / ship-to-ship loading at USGC commands a structural buy-side premium above the benchmark spot price.
Sell-Side Island Premium
20–21% wholesale markup
Island wholesale pricing sits 20–21% above USGC spot, reflecting logistics costs, supply scarcity, and import dependency.
Spread Floor Protection
~$93–100/MT even in bear case
The structural buy/sell premium creates a natural spread floor. Even in the most bearish pricing environment, the per-MT margin remains economically viable.